@yeslek Roma is on netflix, I need to watch it still.
I've seen Black Klansman, Green Book, A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther ........ haven't seen the others yet.
Based on that I would give it to A Star Is Born. Green Book was a great charming flick as well.
If I had to guess given politics. I'd say A Star Is Born won't win, but if it does then Gaga wont win best actress (not sure if she is nominated or not) I'm not a gaga music fan, but she did an AMAZING job and I would pick her for best actress but I just think Hollywood wont be so quick to let a music star in to win best Actress. They like the pity award method. Meaning if she keeps doing films and does well she will win for something she did a lesser job at then this film. Case in point is what Leo and Denzel won Oscars for they should have already received oscars and thus won more out of pity ... its like, damn, we should have given you an Oscar already .... next satisfactory job you do we'll give it to you because your satisfactory is always great anyhow. Tho they had exceptional performances before much better than Training Day and The Revenant.
Green Book is good enough to win, sure, and many think it has a great chance like its some type of Shawshank like movie (tho different, duh) but as amazing as an actor as Mahershala Ali is ... it would be a bit surprising to see him win since he won best actor already and they won best picture with Moonlight.
Hard telling who the supporting actor is in that movie ... but if they are willing to classify Viggo as supporting then he would be a LOCK for the win in my opinion.
Wouldn't shock me if BlackkKlansman won either ... but that somewhat falls in the pity category to me because Spike Lee has already done amazing work in the past. Perhaps the social relevance tie-ins he did cinematically with the humor, and the end might tip it over the scale tho. I think A Star Is Born is a better film, very gripping, but given the power is in the hands of all those previously nominated there might be some political flak to giving a quote on quote remake the best picture award. So it wouldnt shock me to see A Star Is Born snubbed a lot throughout the night. ie. they may not want to award some newbie in Gaga, and the directorial debut of Cooper for a movie that is remake.
Black Panther is not winning, and I dont see Rhapsody taking home Best Picture due to Brian Singer ........... best actor maybe. I'd have to see if Viggo is nominated. And he is ......... I see either him or Cooper winning.
