Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu - In theaters May 22, 2026

[Vega]

I'm a gigantic f*ing Star Wars fan. But I honestly don't see this not flopping. The choice of bringing Star Wars back to the cinema 7 years after Rise of Skywalker (7 years...) is kinda baffling. I think they should have put this straight on streaming and return to theaters with the Gosling film. They seem to have over 1,5 years post production on that one, which is quite unheard of in Hollywood nowadays.

 

[kaw]

 

[tommyh84]

 

[Flloydo]

Just see the new trailer. I’m sold. Looks great imo. Tbh looks better than the whole of season 3. It probably should’ve been season 3

 

[Vega]

Yep, looks awesome!

 

[jcm]

... But I honestly don't see this not flopping…

Ultimately it’s a product of the production and marketing cost relative to its worldwide box office. Luckily for this film it has a production budget of around $166 million after tax credits which is small for a Star Wars film. For marketing they typically spend between 50-100% of the production budget, so let’s go $120 million (especially after the terrible $10 million Super Bowl spot). That would bring the overall budget into the $290 million range. I think this film will probably make around $550 million at the worldwide box office, which falls in the middle of many expert predictions. If it makes that amount you have to account for the split with theaters and those vary but overall it’s around 50%. That would put the break even point in the range of $550-580 million. I think it has a greater than 50% chance of being an either breaking even or flopping. Companies don’t invest hundreds of millions of dollars to break even. However, if the film is great and still gets the same numbers the positive impact it can have on the Star Wars franchise that has had increasingly negative reception as of late. I have more hopes for Star Wars Starfighter being the better film and higher box office but holy cow it’s budget has ballooned.

Both the teaser and today’s trailer looked much better than the initial teaser and the joke of a Super Bowl spot

 

[kaw]

Looks good... But it does feel like just a long episode of the Mandalorian rather than a full on movie.
Maybe thats the volume's fault?

...Also was that Martin Scorsese at the beginning of the trailer!?

 

[kaw]

New Poster:

 

[Flloydo]

...Also was that Martin Scorsese at the beginning of the trailer!?

Genuinely wasn’t expecting that considering how vocal he is about “theme park”’movies

 

[Vega]

Genuinely wasn’t expecting that considering how vocal he is about “theme park”’movies

That hardly applies to Star Wars movies though. I completely agree with him on Marvel slop. But Star Wars movies (people can disagree on the story) are always beautifully shot and a genuine attempt in making good cinema. Marvel is just conveyor belt entertainment in comparison.

 

[Flloydo]

That hardly applies to Star Wars movies though. I completely agree with him on Marvel slop. But Star Wars movies (people can disagree on the story) are always beautifully shot and a genuine attempt in making good cinema. Marvel is just conveyor belt entertainment in comparison.

Nah. What Star Wars has become its all the same. So it’s hilarious he’s worked on a Star Wars film.

And some marvel films are shot as beautifully as the majority of Star Wars films

 

[Vega]

Nah. What Star Wars has become its all the same. So it’s hilarious he’s worked on a Star Wars film.

And some marvel films are shot as beautifully as the majority of Star Wars films

I really disagree, but that's okay. Everyone has their opinions

 

[Gandolf]

Looking good this one, definitely looking forward to it

 

[kaw]

 

[kaw]

 

[Flloydo]

They show a lot in that trailer. Looking forward to it but why is the sound so off?

 

[tommyh84]

Looks so underwhelming, should have just been a feature length episode on D+

 

[tommyh84]

 

[kaw]

Now THAT poster feels like star wars! Love it.

 

[kaw]

Guys I'm starting to get a little worried here... Its been a day since tickets launched and my opening night IMAX theater has sold maybe 30 tickets? ...For a Star Wars movie!?
In comparison, the same theater sold out of Dune 3 tickets in 10 mins.

I'm shocked. I feel like Disney has botched this big time with their bad marketing.

Curious about elsewhere... How are your theaters looking?